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Stock market 101

- Mon, 13 Apr 2015 22:17:05 EST IHrqt+Ui No.37415
File: 1428977825048.jpg -(87715B / 85.66KB, 800x533) Thumbnail displayed, click image for full size. Stock market 101
How do I get into stocks? I've seen threads like these before but I'm a total noob college undergrad dropout who just quit his part time job with less than 10k on the bank. Any good resources to start out?
Sophie Gibbercocke - Tue, 14 Apr 2015 11:03:30 EST hbUo01kz No.37416 Reply
you don't until you get some serious capital
otherwise you are literally gambling your life savings away, your odds of a substantiial profit off a mere 10k investment in the market are equal to that of playing table games in Vegas.
Faggy Ningerdutch - Tue, 14 Apr 2015 16:15:03 EST nuQ4QZNE No.37418 Reply
Hi there, I'm the day trader who lurks threads like these and tries to offer at least a little bit of helpful advice.

One of the myths is that you need "serious capital" to get started. While it definitely helps, the days of forking over ten thousand dollars all at once to some staunchy guy in a wood paneled office are long gone. These days you only need as little as $500 to open a basic brokerage account.

The first thing you need to do is identify your objective: do you want long term compounding growth, or do you wanna exploit bid-ask spreads in order to make a profit for yourself? The learning curve of the former is substantially easier to get over than the latter.

Then once you identify objective, then you must analyze and understand the investing environment. US equity markets are right now in a late stage bull market where there is plenty of opportunity to make money in the short to intermediate time frames, but the long term time frame is a little bit unstable and uncertain. Just be aware.

Then figure out your vehicles. Do you wanna invest in individual companies? Or do you wanna spread your money out across the breadth of the market. The latter is accomplished very easily with index ETFs. (Thank fuck we don't have to deal with mutual funds anymore, fuck that noise)

Investing carries risk, and investing in individual companies requires you to know the exact, specific risks that are factors in the businesses you invest in. For example, I'm a big fan of Dave and Busters (PLAY). Specific risks to their business includes prices of chicken and beef, because they're a restaurant that uses lots and lots of chicken and beef! So if the prices of either of those two go up, then it affects their profits which in turn affects stock price. You gotta know what's gonna hurt you in order to be prepared to deal with it. Good intelligence is everything in this game. Do your due diligence, and you will win.

But, don't be afraid to lose. Because you are gonna lose at first. But the hope is that you gain knowledge by recognizing your mistakes and learning not to make them again. Literally nobody is gonna be there to help you when you lose, contrary to popular belief. No government is gonna come bail your ass out. So you must learn how to lose gracefully, which means learning to manage a losing trade and not letting your emotions get the best of you.

Speaking of which, don't do hypothetical trading. Trade with real money. The rationale is that only when you are trading with real money do you feel the heat and the raw emotion boiling inside of you when you lose, which means you have the opportunity then to learn to control your emotions and not let them get the better of you. All the people I know who started out trading with imaginary money later on went to trade with real money and freaked the fuck out every time they were losing, which led them to buy tops and sell bottoms, which is the opposite of what you want to do.

And finally, filter out the noise. Every "investment expert" out there is full of shit. Don't listen to anything they say. The only thing that doesn't lie is hard data, after that it is up to you to draw your own conclusions. After that, practice makes perfect. The rules of the game are easy to understand, but mastery of the game takes years.

Don't let anybody stop you from doing it. Tell all the "hurrhurr markets r rigged" people to fuck off. Because there is no rigging: the markets are pure chaos and literally nobody is in control of anything that happens. It is the synthesis of the unique and uncorrelated decisions of millions of individual investors. If the stock market was easy, then everyone in the world would be billionaires.
Nigger Changerket - Thu, 23 Apr 2015 16:26:27 EST wBMvmkm8 No.37425 Reply
With index funds, is there more or less risk associated with it? I would assume less since they are spread out across the market? I hear Vanguard has good funds with low prices, what are your thoughts? Also, any recommendations for using stocks as a vehicle for early retirement i.e. long term compounding growth?
Matilda Niggerwater - Thu, 23 Apr 2015 22:46:46 EST kubVKnSa No.37426 Reply
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>i.e. long term compounding growth?
I'll tell you right now, m8.
An S&P 500 ETF. Follow one. They're essentially all the same thing (the Vanguard ETS requires at least 3 grand deposit at first, TD Ameritrade has the iShares 500 ETF with no commission charge or minimum deposit (their commission-free ETF thing is pretty good), the expense ratios are pretty much the same, if you have over 3 grand go Vanguard though) because they all follow the s&p 500. There's some shit like "s&p value" or "s&p growth" but whatever fuck the gimmicks.
What you do is, take any other fund, get a chart to compare it to the S&P growth in the last 10 years. If you find some fund that has actually outperformed it, I'll give you a handshake.

Otherwise, you're entering the world of lesser returns or else higher risks. Faggy said it pretty well, but I'll tell you now, only retards think they'll ever learn how to beat the market.
>B-but Warren Buffet
You didn't live the life with the circumstances to become Buffet. He also didn't just stand at a computer and guess where Coca Cola was going next for all his billions.

Point is, if you're a normal everyday dude, you're gonna almost definitely lose in the market if you try to play it like a trader. Don't be that guy who thinks he knows shit. Pic related is a stock I bought into when I was younger (in 2012) and just started trading, and heard almost unanimously on the internet why "coal is going to rebound"
I still own it, it's 8% of my portfolio now though; I'm banking on this company's rebound still for a few reasons but you don't give a shit about that so anyways
Point there was I diversified a lot the more money I had (which is what index funds do FOR you) which is really necessary. This isn't a casino, you can't put all your eggs in one basket. I'm not saying you're going to definitely fail if 20% of your portfolio goes into one company but seriously, watch for that shit.
Matilda Niggerwater - Thu, 23 Apr 2015 22:54:08 EST kubVKnSa No.37427 Reply
But yeah anyways as to your first question, index funds still have risk to them but it dpeends on what fund.
Look at energy funds right now, they're in the shitter.
Any fund that covers all sections of the market will still drop if there's a recession. Unfortunately you and me both started trading a few years late and a bearish market is around the corner (maybe it'll be another 2 years, maybe it'll be tomorrow, crazy how you can't predict this stuff at all) so we missed on the rapid growth in the last half decade.
But yeah, less risk than a lot of other things, more risk than something like a certificate of deposit
Nigger Poffingson - Fri, 24 Apr 2015 23:59:47 EST ohPNtEWC No.37430 Reply
Awesome, thanks for the replies. Yes it does. I don't even know if I'll start trading anytime soon as I only work a time job. I suppose I could because I live at hone and don't have much expenses but still I want to invest serious money.
Shit Dimblehane - Mon, 27 Apr 2015 10:12:39 EST nuQ4QZNE No.37434 Reply

You can easily predict when a bear market is coming. But everyone makes you believe that you can't because obviously nobody is gonna tell you how to do some kind of proprietary trading technique. "Hurp u can't predict bear markets lol" == "I know when the bear is coming so keep being the counterparty to my shorts you fucking pleb." Remember that every market participant is a fucking asshole so you gotta be an asshole right back to them.

IMO from the data points that I watch the next bear market is 9 to 24 months away.

But just because there's a bear market coming doesn't mean that you can't make money anymore. There are just as many bear funds out there are there are bull funds. Some of those bear funds are highly leveraged too, which means right now they're very, very cheap and when shit goes to hell they're gonna move like a stabbed rat.
Phyllis Billingstone - Thu, 30 Apr 2015 10:07:54 EST nuQ4QZNE No.37441 Reply

Any prediction is an opinion if anything, albeit I try to make my opinion as educated as possible. I firmly believe that central banks across the world overcooked QE and held interest rates too low for too long. They've managed to create a liquidity crisis in the bond markets that's gonna come back and bite us in the ass eventually. QE done right is a terrific tool, it lets central banks smooth out volatility in the market and keep their currency stable. But it can easily be over-done and I think that's what has happened here, not just by the US central bank but also by the euro central bank and the central bank of japan.

Quantitative evidence I use to back up this claim is by looking at the yield curves of US sovereign debt, which compares yields of shorter maturing debt to longer maturing debt. These indicators have been on a steady decline for years now and as soon as they go below zero then we are in serious trouble.

Also I feel that the continuing collapse of commodity prices, first when the gold and silver market fell apart a few years ago, then the oil market fell apart last year, and pretty soon the corn and wheat markets are gonna fall apart probably within the year, indicates that something is fundamentally wrong with the supply side of the world economy. We are producing, but fucking nobody is buying. That's also a very serious problem.

Finally its just straight-up probability. Bull markets rarely make it beyond seven to ten years in age, unless there are truly exceptional geopolitical and economic circumstances. But there is nothing extraordinary about the world economy right now. It is cheaper for companies to buy back stock and return cash to shareholders than it is for them to put money into R&Ding new products or buying new factories or machinery. That again indicates a fundamental lack of demand. In my opinion we are about to enter into an era of massive oversupply that is going to cause a substantial imbalance, and I don't think there is a single central bank in the world that is prepared to handle it.
Wesley Tillingshit - Fri, 01 May 2015 01:16:37 EST Zv+BIrcR No.37442 Reply
Very interesting, especially that last paragraph . I won't lie most of what you said went over my head so I'll have to look into it, but a world of overabundance normally would sound good, but for our economy it certainly isn't. How sad
Lydia Wambleditch - Wed, 09 Dec 2015 15:34:07 EST Y9Orc6yf No.37750 Reply

yeah, the grain side of things doesnt look to hot coming in the new year. Beef prices for feeders may have just topped this bull cycle, dont see many more fall calf runs with prices like in fall 2014.
Eugene Drullytog - Tue, 15 Dec 2015 23:00:55 EST AtG6q8W3 No.37753 Reply
That guy's 9-24 mo timeframe is here in January. Necrobumping doesn't apply on slow boards but it matters in markets! Wouldn't mind an update from these people but I think I know the tune by now.
Augustus Conkinpirk - Thu, 17 Dec 2015 20:40:08 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37755 Reply
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I'm still here yo. A lot of shit has been happening in global markets and I've been following every minute. There is no magic bullet to predicting markets. Its more art than science, man.

Oil markets are melting down: that's the big thing to watch. No surprise to me, my low target on oil is 20 USD for a barrel of light sweet west texas intermediate. Now that the opec cartel has all but collapsed, there is nothing stopping free markets from discovering the huge strategic gluts that countries have built up over the decades since the energy crisis. I mean for fucks sake the united states hasn't exported a single drop of oil for forty years. And now we produce so much oil that we're literally running out of tanks to put it all in. Opec has lost basically its only trap card and now their member countries are getting fucked in the ass by prices now being driven even lower by the prospect of the US government lifting the oil export ban, flooding even more supply into an already completely inundated market.

Frankly the economy is doing very well right now, believe it or not. But we are approaching a cyclical top in the business cycle and we will get a selldown. It's only a matter of time. Originally I postulated that the next crisis was gonna be hot and fast, like the 2008 crisis, but the important thing to notice here is taking note of how nobody can get a fucking loan for anything bigger than a car or a line of credit bigger than a credit card. The banks are incredibly well capitalized and have tightened lending standards drum-tight. A crisis like 2008 could not happen again because of how deleveraged all of the banks are. They're going to survive the next crisis just fine.

The 2008 crisis was caused by credit that was too loose. And it caused a hot, fast recession where people were financially killed in a heartbeat. The next crisis is going to be caused by the opposite condition: credit is too tight. Especially now that overnight deposit rates have begun to tick upwards inline with US central bank policy, it appears the inevitable is now happening: Money is getting more expensive.** Even big corporations are going to start having trouble borrowing money soon, imagine what it's going to do to the consumer! We are going to have a long, slow devaluation of the markets that are going to wither people over a long time, rather than kill them in an instant.

A hot, fast recession is going to happen in China pretty soon, however. That entire market is one big powderkeg of bad policy, loose standards, and shadow banking industries. The CCP literally thinks they can make a financial crisis go away with censorship and propaganda! Personally, I wouldn't be surprised that when the Chinese markets do finally completely melt down and collapse that China plunges into a civil war. Will the CCP be able to step up and be effective mitigators of the coming civil and financial crisis in their country? Probably not: my money is on them deciding to commit genocide on their own people again and be the cause of what could be a pretty serious international crisis.

It's going to be a quiet end of the year. We might not even get a santa rally. All the major traders are already on vacation. They're done for the year, they're all on vacation with their kids right now. It's all the bottom feeders trading now. We're gonna trade flat into the new year. Then next year we need to see if the federal reserve bank of the united states is going to be able to step up to the plate and deal with our declining manufacturing base and the very alarming decrease in corporate earnings that is already happening. Not to mention next year is a presidential election year. The market always gets irrational in presidential election years.

Trading next year is gonna be a lot of fun. There's tons of geopolitical and geofinancial crises. That creates volatility. Bad for long term investors, but good for people like me. Volatility is how we make our money.

** Expensive as referring to the cost of financing that money: i.e. the amount of interest you have to pay to borrow it
Hamilton Fanfoot - Thu, 17 Dec 2015 23:24:46 EST US76lz/T No.37756 Reply
Interesting statements. The geopolitics of Asia are significant for sure. Whether the economy is doing well is pretty subjective and I think there are many causes for concern here. But a conflict abroad could be the medicine for the US economy.
I don't have much cash flow to invest right now because I'm going to school so all I can hope for is buying power and job security--which in Canada right now is a bit of a tall order.

Here's a question for you--Does it seem reasonable that one share of goog is worth nearly 1 oz of gold?
Augustus Conkinpirk - Fri, 18 Dec 2015 10:23:09 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37757 Reply
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>Whether the economy is doing well is pretty subjective

No, it's 100% quantitative. Just because a bunch of anecdotal cases exist of people who are too inept to get themselves a job or figure out how to open an online portfolio and therefore couldn't participate in the recovery doesn't mean that from a purely statistical perspective the economy isn't doing well. Because a majority of people did quite well in the last five years, either by getting a better job or increasing the value of their portfolios, IRAs, or whatever.

However, as I said, we are indeed approaching a cyclical top in the business cycle. Earnings growth is already becoming negative. Companies are flush with cash, and can offset declining revenues by using their cash to repurchase and retire shares and therefore increase their earnings by simply removing shares from the market. But that can't go on forever. The liberal politicians in power in the large countries of the world need to get their shit together and stop trying to find new things to charge their people for, like dumb ass mandatory health insurance schemes, and do something genuinely productive like reform corporate tax law to make it globally competitive again or reform repatriation laws to something that doesn't read like its from the 1930s or reform trade deals in order to give average people a fighting chance against morally bankrupt third word countries that can undercut them every time on providing competitive wages by exploiting dirt poor peasants that have no civil rights. Only then could businesses grow further and not continue to be forced to hide declining revenues behind accounting tricks that only work when borrowing money is very cheap.

>Here's a question for you--Does it seem reasonable that one share of goog is worth nearly 1 oz of gold?

Here's a question for you--Does it seem reasonable that one barrel of oil is worth about nine beef tacos? You're comparing apples and socket wrenches.
Walter Fidgecocke - Fri, 18 Dec 2015 22:15:05 EST mWrLYev4 No.37759 Reply
Interesting that the economy is quantitative but apples vs. socket wrenches is not. Labor participation/food stamps, and a fresh non-zero interest rate for the former. How much do beef tacos or their Saudi equivalent cost in SA?
Polly Doffingkud - Thu, 24 Dec 2015 14:17:40 EST YbTwMkK0 No.37765 Reply
The economy relies heavily on consumer spending, which relies heavily on easy credit and good feelings. Interests rates have risen but whether they will remain upward or another round of QE is coming is yet to be seen. The gains seen in assets and equities have a sampling bias in that they do not support the buying power of average citizens--they mostly add wealth to those that already have wealth--owning property, owning stocks(which requires excess cash flow in the first place). >10% of the US population is on food stamps. Labor participation is at a 38 year low. We are very much in a "blood-from-a-stone" circumstance, and no amount of technical analyis will change that fact. Walmart is a great example--they are starving off their own revenue because they eat their own tail: they pay little so their staff uses food stamps, and since buying power is going down they are losing revenue.

Alphabet is deeply overvalued imo, we could talk about P/E ratios if you like. Who's holding up the market? GE, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, a couple others? The value of gold is deeply manipulated and discredited so as to prevent hedging. The value of oil is low because there are companies in the world able to extract profitably at these prices.

Either central banks will continue this charade pretending gravity doesn't exist and feed the market at all costs, or there will be a large correction, or perhaps a war of some kind. Could be a combination of the above. I am not buying any stocks atm.
Emma Blatherdale - Fri, 25 Dec 2015 11:20:25 EST 6KJGH7NM No.37766 Reply
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>The economy relies heavily on consumer spending

Less than you think

>Interests rates have risen but whether they will remain upward

There will be at least three 25 basis point increases in the next twelve months. 90% certainty.

>or another round of QE is coming

Less than a 1% chance. There is literally no reason for it because of how heavily capitalized US banks are required to be by law now.

>The gains seen in assets and equities have a sampling bias in that they do not support the buying power of average citizens

There is no correlation between stock valuations and consumer buying power anyway. Where the fuck did you even get that idea in the first place?

>10% of the US population is on food stamps. Labor participation is at a 38 year low.

So what? A majority of the population has improved their financial position in the last five years. But that's not sensational enough for the media, so there's a sampling bias towards all the people too inept to figure out how they could have participated in the recovery.

>Walmart is a great example

Walmart is one company.

>Alphabet is deeply overvalued

Then don't buy alphabet? Nobody is holding a gun to your head and demanding you buy walmart and google. Buy target or facebook or whatever the fuck else you want, that's capitalism nigga.

>The value of gold is deeply manipulated and discredited so as to prevent hedging

Oh sweetie you have no idea how gold valuation works, do you?

>The value of oil is low because (dumb uneducated opinion)

Apparently you don't know how oil valuation works either...huh. Do yourself a favor and stay away from commodities.

>I am not buying any stocks atm.

Then don't complain when you aren't getting any gains. You're no better than the people who didn't buy equities for the last decade and then complain that they didn't see any gains. It's a bit of a cause-effect relationship nigga. But apparently that's too much for some people to comprehend.
Priscilla Sarringway - Fri, 25 Dec 2015 12:50:41 EST UbZNucbo No.37767 Reply
I'm not going to pedantically argue with you, but I do not agree. Hubris alone cannot sustain an economy, and I believe there are several indicators that are cause for concern going into 2016. My country specifically either has to raise rates with the US or devalue further--neither of these are good options for Canada and I don't see the situation changing anytime soon.
Emma Blatherdale - Fri, 25 Dec 2015 13:40:01 EST 6KJGH7NM No.37768 Reply
>but I do not agree.

That's the beauty of it: nobody cares what you think. Believe whatever you want but the metrics for determining the health of an economy are completely quantitative, no matter how many anecdotal sob stories exist.
Caroline Doddleban - Wed, 30 Dec 2015 00:34:41 EST XJLjEpW6 No.37772 Reply
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Just when I thought I'd seen the depths of human stupidity..
Jarvis Finnerham - Wed, 30 Dec 2015 14:09:38 EST /oVJA+jv No.37774 Reply
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This is the DJ for the year, in case it wasn't clear
Hamilton Peffingstidge - Thu, 31 Dec 2015 13:12:51 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37775 Reply

Fine then nigga go buy gold or bitcoin or floozcoin or whatever the fuck they sell on late night TV these days and then get back to me when you've done something other than lose money.


I finished the year very far into the black. Second best year to date for me. My strategies work best in flat markets with high volatility.
Hannah Clongerded - Thu, 21 Jan 2016 08:54:29 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37797 Reply
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Good morning. If some of y'all lurkers looking to get into the short term money game: here's a hint for you. Notice all the financial headlines and how horrendous they are? Remember: dumb money does the same thing as everybody else.
Phineas Clablingway - Mon, 01 Feb 2016 23:43:01 EST m80SSlcl No.37812 Reply
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SO why is nobody buying commodities when they're low? Oil futures? It's gonna go back up soon.
William Hangerstone - Wed, 03 Feb 2016 22:19:10 EST jfeTN5nf No.37813 Reply
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Fledgling trader here, most of what this other guy says I feel is accurate, although I do think owning physical gold isn't a bad idea (silver has far more upside), and is an easy, practical way for poor bastards to start saving. It'll retain long-term wealth far better than fiat in a bank account ever will, if you've only got an extra hundred a month to save/invest consider buying some physical silver. The spot price for silver bottomed ~$8.50 during the '08 crisis, and by '11 had exploded to $48. Now in '16 the price has been hammered down to $14, anywhere between here and $10-12 seems like a trustworthy price to accumulate at. Be sure to save the receipt for tax purposes.

Admittedly I started off trading with bitcoin, just because it was easy to get into and I thought it was cool. Gotta say, was the best introduction to market behavior I could've asked for, made a ton of money, subsequently lost a ton of money, through a combination of blind luck and discipline I kept myself in the black but if I had been more learned I'd be sitting very pretty right now. Looking back, I was buying/selling at least once a week (sometimes every day), where if I had instead moved my wealth around once every month or so I'd have had just as good opportunity to profit, not to mention paying a lot less in fees. It's a lot like hunting, you don't just walk into the woods and start blowing ammo everywhere, lay in wait for the right opportunity.

I've signed up for options trading but haven't pulled the trigger just yet, still learning the finer nuances of how it works and checking out what exactly I want to try buying puts on. I'll post my trades here and we'll see whether or not I lose my ass. I missed most of the obvious peak, currently I dunno if the SPX is gonna try to make another wild break towards 1950 or meltdown to 1850, gonna wait and see. If by some unholy miracle it returns to 1950+ again I'm gonna gamble on some SPY puts.

The other guy's figure of a $20 bottom seems accurate to me, here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX:CL1!

Look all the way back before oil got pumped up to $100+, historically the accepted price was between $15-30. If this $30 price doesn't hold, it'll probably fall to and languish at $25-17 range until climbing back up, if whatever the fuck force that pushed it to $100+ is still operational, people were still buying it over $100 so probably. I know fuck all about the news behind oil, I just pay attention to price levels. All price operates within a channel, determine where the boundaries of that channel lay and you can make some pretty decent bets. It really is possible to trade using only a chart, or at least it's the foremost resource you should be paying attention to.

Also, interesting pic related, the holdings of Bridgewater (one of the largest hedge funds around) from Q3 last year. They dumped most their ETF's, interestingly enough their largest acquisition during that period was in a company that provides security services.
Charles Senderway - Mon, 08 Feb 2016 20:26:56 EST jfeTN5nf No.37814 Reply
Put a bid in for some 115 Feb16 puts on this: https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NEE

if my order fills, and if this stock dips back to 110 i should've made upwards of 2.5x on the trade, gonna see. this'll be my first options trade.
Clara Clemmermirk - Tue, 16 Feb 2016 14:36:08 EST 47j7rrfG No.37826 Reply
well i doubled my money on those NEE puts, but lost on some i bought on panera bread. I bid way too high and bought some Feb $195 puts on PNRA for triple what they're worth now. They expire this friday, if PNRA falls back towards $195 (202 currently) i might be able to dump them for a minor loss. If it stays over $200 i pretty much lost everything i put into it.

i guess buying right before expiration isn't the best idea. I've got some bids up for some March puts, depending how well the s&p index does this week I'll lower/raise the bid appropriately.

Personally I doubt the spx is going to hold 1900, if it somehow returns to 1920-1930 i'd buy some puts at that price.

options are pretty cool tbh.
Basil Fanfoot - Tue, 16 Feb 2016 18:30:05 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37827 Reply
>I doubt the spx is going to hold 1900

We already double bottomed on 1825 and the last time we did that (in August - September) we put on a thousand points. Now is (by tomorrow, was) the time to get long again.

We'll go to at least 2000 on this leg up. The market is running out of short term stuff to wet their pants over. China is all fucked but we all know that and we've come to accept it. And Super Mario is talking about unlimited QE again to get the market to shut up and go up for a little bit.

It's ultimately not sustainable but it'll be a good rally for making some quick money.
Shitting Pankinstene - Tue, 16 Feb 2016 22:01:51 EST 47j7rrfG No.37828 Reply
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yeah i have to admit i'm a pessimist/bear, i have no idea where it's going

i put another bid for $200 march puts on PNRA, bid 0.80c per contract. pnra never stays at a peak like this for long, usually falls after two weeks so i'm feeling somewhat confident on it. i was retardedly early in buying february options, i'm probably going to have to dump those. their value just about halves every day of expiration week.
Shitting Pankinstene - Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:17:10 EST 47j7rrfG No.37829 Reply
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looks like i'm already wrong lol, pic related is where i see future resistance occurring. i still think 2k is a longshot considering we've gone from uptrend of past seven years to a downtrend, but if we do hit 2k there are some very obvious trades to be had. i wouldn't go long there but i'd definitely be short from there.

again i'm pretty noob so we'll see; i just like posting my predictions so i can be publicly wrong, helps ward off bias.
Shitting Sogglehood - Wed, 17 Feb 2016 20:12:45 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37832 Reply
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2000 nigga. That's where we're going. Just you watch.
Cedric Davingridge - Thu, 18 Feb 2016 15:11:55 EST 47j7rrfG No.37833 Reply
will do, i'd appreciate it getting there, would make playing the downside that much easier. what do you trade usually?

Also just wanna bitch about/log my trading, PNRA went from 207 to 200 today (all-time-high was $208 in july last year), its Mar200 puts (on which i had bids @ 80c and 1.2) went from $3 to $5.5.. and my 195 Feb puts are worth 1/8th what i paid for them (1.65 to 20c, Feb200 puts are $1.2 fyi), I totally fucked the timing up on that one. currently my account is down about %23, i got cocky on my initial NEE win, got trigger happy and bought puts that are now expiring. i keep making the rookie mistake of chasing my gains.

it seems stocks ~$100 have options worth ~$2-3 at the beginning of the month/expiration cycle, and by the end of the month they're ~.05-.30 if the stock price is the same. having a whole month to be only marginally correct and then profit is nice, but deciding what to pay for them is challenging. it may be worth buying a $3 110 put on a stock worth 110 at the beginning of the month; if the stock goes to 100 at any time during that month you tripled your money. If it stays around the price you bought the option at, i guess you can get out ~12 days before expiration at a 10-30% loss. Good odds, just more convoluted timing. it's really like they layered the pennystock market on top of the actual market, R/R is about the same except you've got better price history to work off of.

i really should've paper traded first to get used to how options behave. I picked up another Mar115 put for NEE @ $3.1 (114$ spot, probably overpaid), and Mar105 HON @ $2.15 ($116 spot), about double what i lost on those PNRA puts. If these puts depreciate by more than half I'll have to quit or paper trade exclusively cuz then it's obvious that i dunno what the fuck i'm doing. NEE's more likely to dump, HON could just float for the month. If PNRA bounces to 205 i might get aggressive with it.

for anyone interested i found these stocks by sifting through all the charts this screener spit out at me: http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_price_o90&ft=4&o=company
Cedric Davingridge - Thu, 18 Feb 2016 15:16:17 EST 47j7rrfG No.37834 Reply
^ typo, HON 105 spot, not 116. all-time-high for it was 107 in august last year.
Sidney Turveyfuck - Fri, 19 Feb 2016 17:45:17 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37835 Reply
>what do you trade usually?

Competitive secret. But lots of leverage.

>it seems stocks ~$100 have options worth ~$2-3 at the beginning of the month/expiration cycle, and by the end of the month they're ~.05-.30 if the stock price is the same.

You know what time decay is, right? You calculate it with one of the greeks...I forget which one though.

Oliver Brangerdure - Sun, 21 Feb 2016 13:00:58 EST Ff1NGSHD No.37837 Reply
I thought I did, of course I was aware options expire, pretty dumb to think I could predict the way price would react with no experience though.

"TV decays to zero at expiration, with a general rule that it will lose ⅓ of its value during the first half of its life and ⅔ in the second half. As an option moves closer to expiry, moving its price requires an increasingly larger move in the price of the underlying security."

1/3rd the first half, 2/3rd the other, yeah. Honestly should've paper traded first to get used to that. Thought I'd be able to dump them for at least half what I paid, pretty stupid to have bought those puts the friday before expiration week. Went from having %100 initial capital friday to like 8% by thursday.

"Even a deeply out of the money put will be worth something, as there is some chance the stock price will fall below the strike before the expiry date."

that fucking hopium. there was a moment my 20c puts jumped to 50c when PNRA tanked on thursday, but i held out hoping for more blood friday. defeatist attitude i don't need, should've just cut my losses. Honestly I bought way too soon on PNRA, should've waited to see if it could return to its previous high before betting on it. buying at 195 was just dumb.

Anyway, I'm comfortable with the risk i'm taking, and at the risk of sounding retarded I should be able to dump these options for only a marginal loss if the trade doesn't go my way. I'm confident NEE won't be able to hold this 115 level over the next two weeks (still probably bought too soon), if HON shows resilience I'll probably dump it sooner than later. If the SPX breaks out past 1940 I may dump them both by the second week and wait for a better opportunity to play the downside. Both of those need to fall about $2.5 for me to double my money, vice versa if they're up.

for the record this account i'm currently blowing up is money i can afford to mess around with, actually made it (plus a lot more tbh) off shitcoins. I've mostly got longer term positions, I don't actively trade for a living, not yet obviously. My timing sucks.

>trade secret
jolly african-american what? post your trades beyatch i wanna see.
Nathaniel Crommersod - Mon, 22 Feb 2016 16:16:00 EST Ff1NGSHD No.37840 Reply
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managed to recoup most my losses after buying some 110 HON puts right at the peak, the stock went from 105 to 110 to 105 today. dumped em around 108-107, way too soon, coulda covered all my losses and put my account solidly in the green if I had waited another hour. I'm currently down %14.

i'm gonna back off and paper trade until the SPX peaks again, honestly these gains today were a lucky break. If this bubble behaves the same as back in '08 march is gonna be a bullish month.
Ernest Tootson - Mon, 22 Feb 2016 20:56:18 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37841 Reply
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Dude you're getting fucking killed with leverage. You should probably start with something that isn't a derivative before you bleed out completely. You can momo trade blue chips and make money off of it while taking only a fraction of risk and idk why you're still choosing to lose money to volatility burn in the options market.

You literally need to understand fairly high level calculus in order to build a successful options program otherwise you're guaranteed to lose money. If you can't calculate out the formulas, then you're basically doing nothing but throwing dice behind your head with your eyes closed.

>post your trades beyatch

No I don't want my funds to be poisoned by amateurs that don't know how to trade them. Do your own homework.

Also get the fuck off yahoo finance that shit is for the hopelessly naive and housewives.
Wesley Brozzlekutch - Tue, 23 Feb 2016 11:39:44 EST Ff1NGSHD No.37842 Reply
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it isn't exactly leverage but yeah same concept. I'm arrogant enough to argue that you don't really need to know calculus to trade them though, simply determine inflection points in the price and when they're likely to occur. The time decay does suck yeah but the primary thing to nail is the price, if you're correct on that the loss from nearing expiration is dampened significantly. You're right though, I should try other markets like forex for simplicity's sake. Not too fond of the idea of chasing momentum/intraday trading. How long do you usually hold your positions for?

I do agree with a lot of what you've said in this thread, but I can't take you too seriously if you refuse to explain your trading/demonstrate profitability. Unless you're trading an incredibly illiquid market my $2k account isn't going to poison anything, also if that's the case the use of leverage would be foolhardy since price could gap right through your stop-loss, just my conjecture since you refuse to discuss it.

and yeah yahoo finance sucks but it works well for pulling up charts on my low-bandwidth connection, i use tradingview for paying attention to intraday.

I still got a 115 NEE put I haven't dumped yet, its current behavior is a repeat of how its behaved previously, two legs to a new high then a retrace to where it broke out. Should be ~113 by next week. Go ahead and scorn me i don't care.. might lose my ass, might not, we'll see. I've stopped trading for now, gonna sit back and study more.

Also, just to throw some more salt on ya I've got a good chunk of cash tied up in this https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ppcusd
average buy-in is ~33c, I've good reason to believe crypto will gain massive appreciation against the slow implosion of our current fiat economy. there are definitely tons of scams in that environment but it's one of the few markets where fundamental analysis means anything anymore, i'm content to go long on it. Feel free to try to change my mind about that, I'll listen to what you have to say, but be prepared for some serious discourse.
Hamilton Crinnerwater - Tue, 23 Feb 2016 20:21:46 EST wnlzoEQ8 No.37843 Reply
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>it isn't exactly leverage
An options contract is the exact definition of leverage. Dude seriously?
>simply determine inflection points in the price and when they're likely to occur
"I have a magical crystal ball in my house. Seriously!"
>I should try other markets like forex
Oh god stop! my sides they hurt
>but I can't take you too seriously if you refuse to explain your trading/demonstrate profitability
I can't take you seriously because you're an amateur who shows no want of trying to understand the structural math theories that quantitatively validate derivative financial instruments, but you wanna think that you're louis fucking winthorpe, spouting off random price quotes like they mean anything...

But no I'm totally gonna hand over my ticker symbols to a stranger on the internet, yeah totally dude totally.

Just curious what would be your definitions of a "call" contract and a "put" contract, in your words?
Wesley Simblefuck - Fri, 26 Feb 2016 15:18:01 EST Ff1NGSHD No.37844 Reply
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Whoops yeah, I confused the terms margin with leverage. This is totally leverage, however I'm not using any borrowed funds, simply paying an upfront cost that could either expire worthless or appreciate significantly.

Honestly though, you're really unpleasant to talk with, and I'm not really interested in arguing over who's opinion is better, you can say anything you want but until you post your performance it's not really possible to take you seriously, especially with the bitter attitude you're giving me. Being emotional about trading is going to fuck you over. If you can't handle being contested by irrational idiots such as myself you really have no business in the markets because that's what markets are (these days, anyway..)

To make a final point about options, they really aren't that hard to understand. If a stock is $110 and you buy a $1 put at a $110 strike, all you need is for the price to fall past $109 and time decay becomes irrelevant since the put has a value of at least $1 (you broke even); if it falls further you exponentially increase your returns (leverage) since you can exercise the option and then dump the stock and pocket the difference (or rather, sell the option to someone who needs it). What I like about options is that even if the price goes against your trade, you still have until expiration for it to return and fall back into profit. On several occasions I watched my position fall %50, only to return and move into profit because I had a plan and stuck to it. Chasing trends AFTER they materialize is how most people get caught buying the peak and selling the bottom. Plan the trade, trade the plan.

You can reply but I'm really not interested in continuing this. Pic related is my performance, had to shrink it to fit inside the screencap. Did some more trading and managed to recoup my losses and be in profit by about $90, if I hadn't gone full retard on PNRA initially I'd be sitting on some very nice gains. I'm literally just playing price action, if I think it's overextended I short, overcomplicating it really doesn't help. Trying to frontrun news and claim you know a market better than it knows itself is ridiculous. A majority of stocks are bullshit pump 'n dumps anyway.

Anyway, I'm done here. The readers of this thread can reach their own conclusions, as they should.

Also anyone looking at trying this I couldn't recommend optionsxpress, their commissions are awful.

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