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China has a pretty clear goal of reaching the Moon, with a good step-by-step plan to do so--and the way their government works, there's no reason to assume they won't do it. More than any other nation outside the United States or Russia, they have the means, the know-how, and thewill to do it. They fund all kinds of shit that doesn't make money or lead to good science, so something that could work toward military tech or scientific value should be a no-brainer for China, even if it's essentially throwing money down a hole to start.
My guess is that the second they get close to pulling it off, the U.S. will swoop in and return to the Moon. If not before China, then right after, just to prove, "yeah, we still got this." The U.S. doesn't like to be upstaged when it comes to shit everyone on the planet will pay attention to.
I see Russia as very utilitarian right now. They're not shooting for any crazy achievements, but they're still just chugging along and doing shit that needs to be done, when it needs to be done. They're not going for the Moon, but they know they are necessary to maintain human space flight ever since the Space Shuttle program ended. I don't see a lot of innovation, but they're really good at doing what we need right now.
India and Japan are 40+ years behind the U.S. and Russia. They're lucky enough to get to tack on a few bits of equipment to a satellite or probe right now. Even with modern technology, they're good with the science and engineering, but they don't have the means to do anything large-scale.
Private enterprise is the wild card. Funding is hard to achieve since nobody wants to invest in anything that won't turn a profit, and right now, private space-flight is not making anybody any money. One day, sure, space tourism will be a thing, but it's not really an industry right now, and it definitely can't recoup the costs it takes to do it. That said, to me it seems that public-sector space exploration might be harder at first, it has a much bigger potential than a government-funded space presence. The second it becomes profitable, there will be a ton of companies all throwing everything they have into it, and there's basically no limit to what they could achieve.
the one downside I see to for-profit space exploration is that the main goals of exploring space will probably shift from "who cares why, we just want to learn as much as possible," to "what will turn the biggest profit in space." While those two angles are not mutually exclusive, they can diverge in a big way because money is involved.
I guess that was long.