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The great Cosmic Fliter

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- Tue, 19 Jan 2021 14:24:24 EST Hzam7zeO No.58157
File: 1611084264091.png -(114276B / 111.60KB, 1024x1032) Thumbnail displayed, click image for full size. The great Cosmic Fliter
With all the recent climate events of this brave new time period in earth history we've started to call the Anthropocene i've started thinking about the great filter and Fermi Paradox.

Maybe climate shifts due to sentient species discovering hydrocarbons as a source of energy to fuel their industrialization IS the great cosmic filter.
They all fuck up their homeworlds beyond repair before they realize what the fuck they are actually doing and that#s why we haven't come across any aliens yet.

It's a train a thought i've had for a while now and the more I observe humanity the more likely it seems.

What do you think of this, /sagan/ists?
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F - Tue, 27 Apr 2021 03:17:18 EST zWx4tH5L No.58186 Reply
>>58157
I think that biologically and/or technologically caused extinction events would contribute a lot to the great filter. Hydrocarbons are probably a significant factor, but assuming that it's predominant also assumes carbon-based life, and that intelligence arises late enough in a biosphere's history to have the kind of hydrocarbon reserves that we do.
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F - Tue, 27 Apr 2021 03:18:15 EST zWx4tH5L No.58187 Reply
>>58157

That said, I also think the Fermi Paradox is a really overcredited outlook for exobiology. Feels like going deer-hunting, pacing about the forest's edge, peering in for a few minutes and saying "deer... must be extremely rare creatures... they may not even exist."

We've been searching and broadcasting for a split second in astronomical terms. What we now look for as our best guess indices for habitable systems are: planets in the liquid water 'goldilocks' zone, stellar radiation levels where complex organic molecules can be stable, and safety from cataclysmic impact events.
We've found that there's at least an average of one planet per star, and exoplanets we can detect are mostly just the very large ones (earth sized planets can be detected only in small orbits around low-mass stars that are relatively nearby). Large planets being so commonplace suggests that most of those systems are likely to have smaller terrestrial planets/moons too, and what's more: those large planets are also the primary 'shield' that deflect and clean up debris in a given star system, so the aforementioned cataclysmic impactors are unlikely to strike their smaller neighbors. The Kepler mission set out to survey for such systems, and estimated that there are about 40 billion in the Milky Way. When we narrow that number down to just systems with sun-like main-sequence stars (i.e. ones with familiar radiation levels) we are still looking at an estimate of about 11 billion systems. A huge number, but a small fraction. Given how quickly life formed in the geological history of this planet, it would be one hell of chance for that to be a fluke.
Our radio waves have only traveled for a little over a century, and that outer edge of our radio bubble is weak. Life doesn't mean sapient, technological, or searching with radio astronomy. All of the above doesn't mean broadcasting, or wanting to be found, or broadcasting strongly enough to hear across vast distances. Fermi expected to hear them because if they are advanced, they must be broadcasting- even unintentionally. Yet, if they've passed 'the great filter' of young species, then the chances of their technology being within a million years of ours is strikingly low. Would they still use radio? There are forms of energy we can't even explain, like dark energy, and to a lesser extent, gravity itself. If they did still use radio, why should we expect that they waste energy on omnidirectional broadcasting if they aren't seeking contact?
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Fred Hoyle - Fri, 14 May 2021 09:38:48 EST VsVTgT1F No.58191 Reply
>>58187
Based reply. Also, consider how many habitable zone planets are Super-Earths. Earth is just barely leavable using chemical rockets with staging considering its gravity. If it was just a bit heavier, we'd need nuclear rockets to even launch the simplest satellite. How many civilizations are trapped on high G planets?

On the other hand, a low G habitable planet (higher G than Mars but lower than Earth) may get something out of a Verne novel, spacefaring at a 19th century technology level or early 20st century perhaps. Might be especially prevalent if the planet is really a moon of a habitable zone Jovian - the other moons and the Jovian would be very prominent on the sky and would likely inspire cultural affinity to space early on, however, spacefaring with primitive tech would obviously not be interstellar.

An idea I am toying with for a planet in-between Mars and Earth in mass, gravity and geology in an universe that I am worldbuilding is to have a biosphere as a whole evolve basic intelligence and then create bioships that evolve by natural selection. Unlikely elements to evolve like staging are unnecessary because escape velocity is far lower than from Earth,
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Edward Pickering - Wed, 23 Jun 2021 07:09:43 EST wnBZ7ko+ No.58205 Reply
Breaking news: there is no cosmic filter. We are the first technologically capable life forms to evolve in this galaxy. We will populate the galaxy with our progeny (biological or machine TBD)
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Edward Pickering - Wed, 23 Jun 2021 07:10:15 EST wnBZ7ko+ No.58206 Reply
Breaking news: there is no cosmic filter. We are the first technologically capable life forms to evolve in this galaxy. We will populate the galaxy with our progeny (biological or machine TBD)>>58157
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Grote Reuber - Wed, 23 Jun 2021 21:50:30 EST HCN900Ws No.58208 Reply
>>58205
>>58206
I don't know. There's literally been 13.51 billion years for technological life to evolve at some point in our milky way galaxy. Maybe we're the only intelligent lifeforms to exist in the present but maybe intelligent life came and went eons ago, before The Sun and the planets formed creating our own solar system.
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